Solid analysis; look forward to your further views, as Trump’s 2025 agenda rolls out. Issues below reflect major disconnects in respect, reciprocity plus a unilateral breaking of US’s ratified (legally, by your US Senate) international treaty obligations on FTA in 1989; NAFTA in 1995-7; & USMCA 2019; all reaffirmed by ratification of WTO in 2001-2. Would be interested in your views - compared to say Paul Krugman’s on the potential outcomes of US withdrawal its tariff concessions made in all of these treaties your trade partners ratified in good faith; Mexico has made clear it will seek compensation for damages via WTO dispute settlement system/panel process; Canada is on the same track… because relatively small trading economies have no choice, but to follow the rules-based international order. Trump appears to be intent on reputation of US‘s international obligations, in particular the system, the US lead in developing in the eight decades following WWII. Krugman points out returning to tariff levels 25% higher than the disastrous Smoot-Hawley Terrace of 1930, threatens destruction of US manufacturing capacity; or even worse, plunging the world into another depression as bad as, or worse, than Great Depression of 95-85 years ago — which required a full decade & WWII I from which to recover.
🔺Some context, fyi Mexican President (Presidenta) Claudia Sheinbaum’s response to Trump: “So you voted to build a wall… well, my fellow Americans, even if you don’t understand much about geography, since to you America is your country and not a continent, it’s important that before you lay the first bricks, you discover that there are, outside that wall: 7 billion people.
But since you don’t really know the term “people”, we’ll be calling them “consumers”. There are 7 billion consumers ready to replace their iPhone with a Samsung or Huawei in less than 42 hours.. They can also replace Levi’s with Zara or Massimo Duti. In less than six months, we can easily stop buying Ford or Chevrolet vehicles and replace them with a Toyota, KIA, Mazda, Honda, Hyundai, Volvo, Subaru, Renault or BMW that are technically far superior to the cars you produce.
Those 7 billion people can also stop subscribing to Direct TV, & we wouldn’t want to, but we can stop watching Hollywood movies and start watching more Latin American or European productions that have quality, message, cinematic techniques and content superior.
Although it may sound incredible, you can skip Disney and go to Xcaret Park in Cancun, Mexico, Canada, or Europe: there are other great destinations in South America, the East & Europe. And even if you don’t believe it, even in Mexico, there are better burgers than McDonald’s and have better nutritional content. Has anyone seen pyramids in the USA? Egypt, Mexico, Peru, Guatemala, Sudan and other countries have pyramids with incredible cultures. Discover where the wonders of the ancient and modern world are… None of these are in the US… what a shame for Trump, he would have bought & resold them!
We know Adidas exists & not just Nike; & we can start consuming Mexican tennis shoes like Panama. We know a lot more than you think. We know, for example, that if these 7 billion consumers don’t buy their products, there will be unemployment & their economy (within US racist wall) will collapse to point that they will beg us to tear down the fatal wall…We didn’t want to but you wanted a wall, you’re gonna get a wall…..Sincerely. »
🔺A few Canadian riffs for context to give you a few tough realities to reflect upon - is the US capable of reconsidering its bullying approach to it strategic policy of escalation dominance in military security & dual use technology policies❓; to consider a collaborative, win-win approach to international engagement, in particular all WTO member nations upholding their ratified treaty commitments to respect & enable an international, rules-based order where all economies & businesses can grow & prosper❓ — rather than nurture disinfo, mendacity & territorial ambitions of a 19th century rogue power❓There won’t be a better opportunity to demonstrate this, then the meetings in Europe beginning Monday on issues around the rules framework for secure AI. But the US needs to reflect upon whether any new treaties it promotes will be acceptable - when the US is showing itself to be incapable of living up to its ratified treaty obligations🤷🏻♂️
Canada 'Will Stand Up to a Bully', says Mark Carney [in BBC interview]…”Carney shows smart judgement sparring with BBC interviewer, keeps his cool & powder dry on Trump’s insulting imperial threats & judgements; limiting comment on disruptive disinfo where few substantive debating points exist… Underlines why he currently has strong lead in Liberal leadership race” 🔺https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c24760vqdz5o
Canada of long necessity abjures economic illiteracy displayed in Trump rants on trade balances; but US needs to reflect seriously on how reciprocal withdrawal of past concessions makes clear Trump’s accountability for this disruption of the global trading system … notably at tariff levels above those of 1930 disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which caused the world-wide Great Depression—that took a decade & WWII to end. Both Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman & Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Sommers have publicly said Trump’s tariff levels will destroy US manufacturing & threaten a global depression.
“Canadian Tariffs Will Undermine U.S. Minerals Security” A new study by your CSIS points out the counterproductive potential of Canadian capacity - Pres Trump’s warlike threats on Friday, played across by noon, notwithstanding. "US tariffs on Canadian minerals may drastically undermine US efforts to reduce its reliance on China for minerals vital for national, economic & energy security".
“Canada is the biggest source of US mineral imports at $50 billion, providing key sources of uranium, aluminum, nickel, steel copper, and niobium. China is next at $28 billion. The consequences of tariffs would be particularly profound for the American defense industry, nuclear energy & heavy manufacturing.’
No grandstanding appeals to good faith intentions, Biden interregnum underlined if GOP bullying results in Canadian concessions, US simply demand/takes anything regardless of treaty obligations — because it can, plus there is zero respect, understanding nor accommodation for less powerful trading partners. In such circumstances, what could any sensible advisor recommend but to stand forthrightly for trading regimes like WTO & existing treaties - CPTPP & RECEP - which provide a more balanced & fair agency plus mutual respect for all members.
Thanks for your reaction. China has already taken the U.S. to the WTO on the 10 percent tariff, even though they know it will in the end not make a difference due to the suspension of the Appellate Panel, thanks to the U.S. blocking panel judges. The impact of the U.S. tariffs may well trigger retaliation of similar order, though I believe the impact will be different from the Smooth Hawley tariffs in the past. The reason is that supply chains are more integrated and with it “stop trading” is hardly an option. Rather, it would mean a cost/ supply shock for many of the internationally traded goods, which will reduce demand. The IMF has done projections of a trade war in the order of Mr. Trump’s proposals, and though bad dode the world economy, they come up with impact on world GDP (some 6-10 percent less by 2030) that are emit comparable with the declines in the 1930s. I hope they are right.
🙏🤞 look forward to your reaction in due course, to potential loss of US agency internationally as Trump’s agenda plays out… What comes to mind is general view on US containment/decoupling strategy across SE Asia, as leaders of most of those nations have expressed publicly - especially your current home Singapore (still?)❓Suspect Chinese recourse to WTO will be copied by Mexico & Canada - alternatives just fail to meet substantive concerns about US accountability…
Why didn’t the Biden administration appoint WTO tribunal members? Seems to me both sides of US politics want to undermine the WTO.
The rest of the world should set up an alternative WTO tribunal to adjudicate disputes not involving the US. I doubt the US will ever allow the WTO tribunal to adjudicate disputes with the US.
Solid analysis; look forward to your further views, as Trump’s 2025 agenda rolls out. Issues below reflect major disconnects in respect, reciprocity plus a unilateral breaking of US’s ratified (legally, by your US Senate) international treaty obligations on FTA in 1989; NAFTA in 1995-7; & USMCA 2019; all reaffirmed by ratification of WTO in 2001-2. Would be interested in your views - compared to say Paul Krugman’s on the potential outcomes of US withdrawal its tariff concessions made in all of these treaties your trade partners ratified in good faith; Mexico has made clear it will seek compensation for damages via WTO dispute settlement system/panel process; Canada is on the same track… because relatively small trading economies have no choice, but to follow the rules-based international order. Trump appears to be intent on reputation of US‘s international obligations, in particular the system, the US lead in developing in the eight decades following WWII. Krugman points out returning to tariff levels 25% higher than the disastrous Smoot-Hawley Terrace of 1930, threatens destruction of US manufacturing capacity; or even worse, plunging the world into another depression as bad as, or worse, than Great Depression of 95-85 years ago — which required a full decade & WWII I from which to recover.
🔺Some context, fyi Mexican President (Presidenta) Claudia Sheinbaum’s response to Trump: “So you voted to build a wall… well, my fellow Americans, even if you don’t understand much about geography, since to you America is your country and not a continent, it’s important that before you lay the first bricks, you discover that there are, outside that wall: 7 billion people.
But since you don’t really know the term “people”, we’ll be calling them “consumers”. There are 7 billion consumers ready to replace their iPhone with a Samsung or Huawei in less than 42 hours.. They can also replace Levi’s with Zara or Massimo Duti. In less than six months, we can easily stop buying Ford or Chevrolet vehicles and replace them with a Toyota, KIA, Mazda, Honda, Hyundai, Volvo, Subaru, Renault or BMW that are technically far superior to the cars you produce.
Those 7 billion people can also stop subscribing to Direct TV, & we wouldn’t want to, but we can stop watching Hollywood movies and start watching more Latin American or European productions that have quality, message, cinematic techniques and content superior.
Although it may sound incredible, you can skip Disney and go to Xcaret Park in Cancun, Mexico, Canada, or Europe: there are other great destinations in South America, the East & Europe. And even if you don’t believe it, even in Mexico, there are better burgers than McDonald’s and have better nutritional content. Has anyone seen pyramids in the USA? Egypt, Mexico, Peru, Guatemala, Sudan and other countries have pyramids with incredible cultures. Discover where the wonders of the ancient and modern world are… None of these are in the US… what a shame for Trump, he would have bought & resold them!
We know Adidas exists & not just Nike; & we can start consuming Mexican tennis shoes like Panama. We know a lot more than you think. We know, for example, that if these 7 billion consumers don’t buy their products, there will be unemployment & their economy (within US racist wall) will collapse to point that they will beg us to tear down the fatal wall…We didn’t want to but you wanted a wall, you’re gonna get a wall…..Sincerely. »
🔺A few Canadian riffs for context to give you a few tough realities to reflect upon - is the US capable of reconsidering its bullying approach to it strategic policy of escalation dominance in military security & dual use technology policies❓; to consider a collaborative, win-win approach to international engagement, in particular all WTO member nations upholding their ratified treaty commitments to respect & enable an international, rules-based order where all economies & businesses can grow & prosper❓ — rather than nurture disinfo, mendacity & territorial ambitions of a 19th century rogue power❓There won’t be a better opportunity to demonstrate this, then the meetings in Europe beginning Monday on issues around the rules framework for secure AI. But the US needs to reflect upon whether any new treaties it promotes will be acceptable - when the US is showing itself to be incapable of living up to its ratified treaty obligations🤷🏻♂️
Canada 'Will Stand Up to a Bully', says Mark Carney [in BBC interview]…”Carney shows smart judgement sparring with BBC interviewer, keeps his cool & powder dry on Trump’s insulting imperial threats & judgements; limiting comment on disruptive disinfo where few substantive debating points exist… Underlines why he currently has strong lead in Liberal leadership race” 🔺https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c24760vqdz5o
Canada of long necessity abjures economic illiteracy displayed in Trump rants on trade balances; but US needs to reflect seriously on how reciprocal withdrawal of past concessions makes clear Trump’s accountability for this disruption of the global trading system … notably at tariff levels above those of 1930 disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which caused the world-wide Great Depression—that took a decade & WWII to end. Both Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman & Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Sommers have publicly said Trump’s tariff levels will destroy US manufacturing & threaten a global depression.
.🔺https://archive.ph/2025.02.04-162619/https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/inside-the-chaotic-run-up-to-trumps-tariff-u-turn-99ea70b6
“Canadian Tariffs Will Undermine U.S. Minerals Security” A new study by your CSIS points out the counterproductive potential of Canadian capacity - Pres Trump’s warlike threats on Friday, played across by noon, notwithstanding. "US tariffs on Canadian minerals may drastically undermine US efforts to reduce its reliance on China for minerals vital for national, economic & energy security".
“Canada is the biggest source of US mineral imports at $50 billion, providing key sources of uranium, aluminum, nickel, steel copper, and niobium. China is next at $28 billion. The consequences of tariffs would be particularly profound for the American defense industry, nuclear energy & heavy manufacturing.’
🔺https://www.csis.org/analysis/canadian-tariffs-will-undermine-us-minerals-security
No grandstanding appeals to good faith intentions, Biden interregnum underlined if GOP bullying results in Canadian concessions, US simply demand/takes anything regardless of treaty obligations — because it can, plus there is zero respect, understanding nor accommodation for less powerful trading partners. In such circumstances, what could any sensible advisor recommend but to stand forthrightly for trading regimes like WTO & existing treaties - CPTPP & RECEP - which provide a more balanced & fair agency plus mutual respect for all members.
Look forward to your reactions🙏
.🔺https://archive.ph/2025.02.04-162619/https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/inside-the-chaotic-run-up-to-trumps-tariff-u-turn-99ea70b6
Thanks for your reaction. China has already taken the U.S. to the WTO on the 10 percent tariff, even though they know it will in the end not make a difference due to the suspension of the Appellate Panel, thanks to the U.S. blocking panel judges. The impact of the U.S. tariffs may well trigger retaliation of similar order, though I believe the impact will be different from the Smooth Hawley tariffs in the past. The reason is that supply chains are more integrated and with it “stop trading” is hardly an option. Rather, it would mean a cost/ supply shock for many of the internationally traded goods, which will reduce demand. The IMF has done projections of a trade war in the order of Mr. Trump’s proposals, and though bad dode the world economy, they come up with impact on world GDP (some 6-10 percent less by 2030) that are emit comparable with the declines in the 1930s. I hope they are right.
🙏🤞 look forward to your reaction in due course, to potential loss of US agency internationally as Trump’s agenda plays out… What comes to mind is general view on US containment/decoupling strategy across SE Asia, as leaders of most of those nations have expressed publicly - especially your current home Singapore (still?)❓Suspect Chinese recourse to WTO will be copied by Mexico & Canada - alternatives just fail to meet substantive concerns about US accountability…
Why didn’t the Biden administration appoint WTO tribunal members? Seems to me both sides of US politics want to undermine the WTO.
The rest of the world should set up an alternative WTO tribunal to adjudicate disputes not involving the US. I doubt the US will ever allow the WTO tribunal to adjudicate disputes with the US.
I agree. I also think this was a big strategic mistake: the WTO could have been a moderating factor on Mr. Trump. Now it is not.