China’s rapid economic rise has had a major impact first and foremost on China’s people, but increasingly on the rest of the world. These consequences are increasingly geopolitical in nature. Indeed, today we are living in the era of “geoeconomics.”
Thanks for your comments Jeff. I was not aware of Tetlock's book, and will look for it.
Thanks for sharing this thoughtful piece. Regarding Mokyr, there is a great chapter in Tetlock’s book on counterfactual history specifically focused on the China / Great Divergence thread, which came to mind as I read this because we are again trying to understand China’s technological trajectory
"Will China Win?" This is just it. China isn't trying to "win" anything. It's the US who is afraid of losing. That's why they're beefing up military bases in the Philippines and Guam and restricting semiconductor trade with China (a desperate move that won't impede China for long). China is a light unto the world that's showing what good governance can do.
Hopefully the US doesn't kill everyone before we reach true multipolarity.
Some typos -- extent not extend. "FuqiAng" is not Chinese.
Happy to see the shout out to Joel Mokyr.
The 1AD-2050 chart is well done. Focuses the mind.